It is Veteran’s Day and being a California state employee it provides me an opportunity to hang out with Mary Beth and Caroline. What better way to spend the day than to hang out with my baby and get her picks for the BCS bowl games!
Caroline already knows the big debate about whether or not a one-loss BCS team (potentially Auburn, LSU, Nebraska, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Oregon, or Stanford) is more deserving than an undefeated non-BCS team (i.e. Boise State or TCU). She also has her Western Athletic Conference bias since she is a Fresno State Bulldog, even though her daddy was an SEC athlete (okay, go ahead and laugh). But Caroline is a realist, and for a three-month old, she’s really knows what she is talking about.
As she plays on her activity mat, I’ve done my best to interpret Caroline’s 12-week old accent. So here you go…my daughter’s “what should happen” and “what will happen” along with some explanations:
BCS Championship Game:
Should: Boise State vs. Oregon
Will: TCU vs. Oregon
Explanation: All three of these teams will go undefeated and it is impossible to argue against an undefeated Pac-10 team being trumped by two undefeated non-BCS teams. Despite having two more road games (including one at arch rival Oregon State) and a home game against a solid Arizona team, Oregon is a lock. Their explosiveness and raw talent will get them to Glendale for the BCS National Championship game. The Ducks opponent will be TCU, even though it should be Boise State. TCU’s defense is incredible. But who have they played? Yes, they beat a mid-tier Pac-10 team in Oregon State at home, destroyed a better Baylor team at home, and annihilated an overrated Utah team (don’t be surprised if the luck of the Irish work over the Utes in South Bend this weekend). Boise State has beaten the same Oregon State team at home, a surging Virginia Tech team in a pseudo-neutral matchup (too bad the Hokies lost to FCS James Madison), and still have to play Nevada and yes, Fresno State! The key point, however, goes all the way back to last season. The boys in blue beat BOTH Oregon and TCU! College football puts teams at a disadvantage with pre-season rankings. The Broncos had 20 returning starters off a very good and undefeated 2009 squad. They are legit. Now, for the fans of BCS one-loss schools who disagree with Caroline’s “should”…no, Boise State does not play the type of schedule that any SEC, Big-10, or other FBS conference plays. Would the Broncos go undefeated in any of these big-boy leagues? Probably not. Could they beat anyone in these leagues? Absolutely. We have to look at the hand they are dealt, and they were able to take the pot sitting on pocket 10’s. All this is null and void shall Auburn go undefeated. If that happens, they will be #1 playing #2 Oregon.
After TCU and Oregon qualify for the BCS National Championship game, here is what will happen with the other BCS games:
Let’s start with the Rose Bowl…So Boise State was left out of the championship game and will finish #3 in the rankings. They would be very deserving of a trip to the Rose Bowl, but tradition will smack the Broncos in the face and take the traditional Pac-10 vs. Big Ten schools. Who will that be?
Should: Stanford vs. Michigan State
Will: Stanford vs. Michigan State
Too bad Stanford couldn’t finish off the incredible start they had against Oregon. The Cardinal was leading 21-3 on the Ducks, then Phil Knight lit a fire up on his Nike entourage. Stanford has a great football team and we can all debate about whether they should get the nod over Boise State. That is what makes all this fun, right? Sparty will get the opportunity to play in the Granddaddy of them all, even though Caroline thinks they are the fourth best team in the Big Ten. A favorable schedule (no Ohio State) with an early season win against Wisconsin gets them in this game. A great season will conclude with a deserving trip to Pasadena.
The Sugar Bowl gets the next pick in the process and the SEC has an automatic spot in this game for its champion in the event the winner does not go to the BCS National Championship game. The folks in the French Quarter will welcome Auburn. After the Sugar Bowl, the ACC will get their pick and will again host Virginia Tech. Lastly, the Fiesta bowl will celebrate with Big 12 champ Nebraska. So who will these teams play?
Candidates: Boise State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Alabama, Iowa, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh
The Sugar Bowl will do the right thing and select Boise State to play the Auburn Tigers. This will be an incredible matchup with lots of points.
Should: Auburn vs. Wisconsin
Will: Auburn vs. Boise State
The Orange Bowl will then pick the two-loss Alabama Crimson Tide to play against Virginia Tech. This will happen after Arkansas defeats LSU in Little Rock. The Tide will be selected over the Razorbacks as they will parade down to South Beach and they came back to beat the Hogs in Fayetteville. Who is most upset about this? One-loss Wisconsin. The SEC prevails…again!
Should: Virginia Tech vs. Wisconsin
Will: Virginia Tech vs. Alabama
Lastly, the Fiesta Bowl will be forced to match-up Pittsburgh with Big 12 champ Nebraska.
Should: Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh
Will: Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh
So there you have it! Caroline has spoken her mind and I have done my best to interpret what she has said. I guess we will learn the truth over the next month. It should be a fun ride with plenty to cheer and complain about! The ‘Dogs travel to Boise State on November 19th, so I hope my daughter is wrong about her predictions!
